tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4098620.post3786308057797138957..comments2024-03-15T04:02:42.341-04:00Comments on CrimLaw: Penalties and the Rational OffenderUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4098620.post-37813293889262759892008-03-09T23:34:00.000-04:002008-03-09T23:34:00.000-04:00Just came across your blog and I really do find it...Just came across your blog and I really do find it interesting. But as to the point of your post, I think that there is a cost benefit analysis, but it doesn't involve punishment. It's the probability of being caught.<BR/>If I think that I am going to get caught, I am very unlikely to commit a crime. But if I believe that I will get away with it, I have no disincentive not to commit it.<BR/>No one is thinking that if I commit this crime, I get x years, but if I change this factor, I only get y years, because no one wants to do any years.Stevehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15133076527504338868noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4098620.post-15015099952877744282008-03-05T12:56:00.000-05:002008-03-05T12:56:00.000-05:00Don't sell yourself short Ken. RobDon't sell yourself short Ken. <BR/><BR/>RobAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4098620.post-14336678691514516302008-03-05T06:11:00.000-05:002008-03-05T06:11:00.000-05:00Rob,I'd say great minds think alike, but I'd rathe...Rob,<BR/><BR/>I'd say great minds think alike, but I'd rather not upset Professor Becker. I just have this picture of Becker-Posner Blog having an entry, "The Economics of Idiocy: How a Man Can Spend 5 Years Working on the CrimLaw Blog Without Any Economic Benefit."Ken Lammershttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15646250142814585354noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4098620.post-80534131939183115192008-03-04T16:04:00.000-05:002008-03-04T16:04:00.000-05:00Gary Becker's model goes back to 1968. RobGary Becker's model goes back to 1968. <BR/><BR/>RobAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4098620.post-73792764920181079752008-03-04T16:00:00.000-05:002008-03-04T16:00:00.000-05:00Sorry, Ken. I guy named Becker come up with this s...Sorry, Ken. I guy named Becker come up with this several years ago. The "Becker Model" could also be effectively tied to any type of law enforcement market. My personal favorite is immigration law: people violate immigration law with regular impunity for lots of reasons, but the is not effective deterant to not do so because the chances of being caught are so small. The immigration problem is not that the laws are too soft, it is because enforcement is not funded at levels to make an effective deterant. <BR/><BR/>Look for Becker and Judge Posner's blog out on the web. You'd love it. <BR/><BR/>Rob RobertsonAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4098620.post-10931648875873359812008-03-04T11:01:00.000-05:002008-03-04T11:01:00.000-05:00I don't think we disagree much at all, except abou...I don't think we disagree much at all, except about the numbers of people who don't "think" at all about the costs and some of the nuances. But then, that may refelct where we practice and the types of crime that predominate. It is likely that your more rural experience differs from my more urban experience.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4098620.post-25545191376777005782008-03-04T09:55:00.000-05:002008-03-04T09:55:00.000-05:00Terrific post, Ken. What you say matches with jus...Terrific post, Ken. What you say matches with just about everything I've ever read about how people respond to incentives.<BR/><BR/>However, in the first set of equations, someone who gets caught faces an expected average prison sentence of 112 weeks, whereas in the second set, someone who gets caught faces 520 weeks. If criminals are afraid of the second sentence, it's not because of consistency but because it's so painfully long.<BR/><BR/>If you're arguing the benefits of consistency, perhaps you could compare (1) a typical sentence of 90 days with a 5% chance of a catching a 5-year minimum (perhaps from a Giuliani-style "Federal Day") versus (2) a fixed mandatory 6-month sentence. The expected prison time is almost the same either way, but the second is more consistent.Windypundithttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01788171819370012437noreply@blogger.com