About once a day I check the Virginia Department of Health site to see what the numbers look like. I've looked at it enough that I had a general idea of what the graphs look like. Then I looked today and something was very different.
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| Chart - 02 April 2020 |
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| Chart - 04 April 2020 |
Everything got boosted numerically. Lots of increases in numbers - in numbers that are supposed to have been solid, reliable, we've nailed these down numbers.
The new chart is closer to the model of what should have happened after lock down:
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| Analysis of 02 April Chart |
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| Analysis of 04 April Chart |
There are still anomalies, but the new numbers seem to more closely follow the model (please note that I changed the downward slope of the red line to one I believe would be more accurate in the 04 April chart).
My main question is where the new numbers replacing the old "reliable" ones came from? The Virginia Department of Health doesn't explain other than a vague statement about investigating a facility "including intensive testing." A quick check of the papers reveals that they seem to be showing outbreaks in senior living facilities in the Richmond area, but the number the papers are reporting don't seem to reflect the jumps in numbers above.
Assuming our Department of Health isn't padding its numbers with imaginary cases (unlikely),
this just supports the one of the conclusions in my last post. Numbers of cases isn't a reliable metric because it is subject to the amount of tests and how they are used and
maybe reporting errors or obfuscation?
I really do want to know where the numbers came from if anybody knows.
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