10 April 2020

Are the VDH's Numbers Reliable?

ADDENDUM: Looking through news articles, it appears that VDH is adding numbers from senior care residences in the Richmond area (that were hiding them?). At least, that was the explanation for the sudden jump in the number of deaths (which I assume are being diagnosed post-death) and that means the (hidden?) infections occurred at an earlier time. Not sure that explains the entire boost, but it is the best explanation I can come up with. As I've said previously, this is not something fitting a conspiracy theory because there's nothing to conspire toward. The medical situation is already receiving priority over fundamental constitutional rights and an economy being seriously damaged. There's nothing to gain.


I have long had a rule: Before you decide something was done in malice you have to overcome the presumption that it is the result of error, stupidity, or incompetency. It's a good rule and proves true far more often than not. And then there's what the VDH is doing with it's COVID-19 numbers:
Click on picture to get better view
 Mind you, as someone who's more than a little skeptical about all the things that are being done, the newer numbers tend to favor things as I conceive of them (linear growth, no real impact from "social distancing"). But, I'm frustrated by the fact that the numbers keep changing. I'm not including the numbers in the VDH's gray area where they say numbers are subject to change and I'd even understand number changes in the week behind. However, these changes keep happening further back. Today's change went back at least as far as 28 February 20. That's 41 days ago. Any changes in numbers needs an explanation on the page or somebody might think you're past the presumption above.


Model Review moved to its own post.

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